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The Washington Senate race is now statistically tied, according to a new Trafalgar Poll.

Republican newcomer Tiffany Smiley earned 48.2% support to 30-year incumbent Patty Murray’s 49.4%. The margin of error is 2.9%, making this a statistical dead heat. 2.4% of voters are undecided.

It appears the surge is coming from independent voters, in line with the significant swing expressed in a recent Seattle Times poll. Trafalgar oversampled Democrats at 44.2% versus 33.4% of Republican respondents. Independents accounted for 22.4% of the respondents. And there were more female (53.1%) respondents than male (46.9%).

New (10/25-28) shows incumbent still slightly in lead, but shaping up to be a surprising nail biter.

49.4%
48.2%
2.4% Und

See Report:

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly)

Momentum with Tiffany Smiley

Smiley is on a statewide bus tour and her stops have been standing-room only. Contrast that with Murray who, even with guests like Senator Elizabeth Warren, has sparse participation.

There’s no doubt that Murray has support and, given she’s a 71-year-old who has been in office for three decades, there’s going to be less interest in her events. But Smiley has the edge in voter excitement and engagement, which could lead to more reliable turnout amongst Republicans, Independents, and Democrats who recognize their party has become unrecognizable.

Democrats continue to embrace far-left activists who pretend there are 17,000 genders. Sometimes you can have multiple genders, but also, none at all, they falsely claim. Yet the party takes them seriously.

Rantz: Patty Murray forced woman to choose between job and kids

The party has also kowtowed to the fringe’s attempt to dismantle the criminal justice system and defund police. Consequently, crime has soared statewide. Seattle and Tacoma continue to see record-high violent crime, while criminals know they can drive away from cops without being pursued thanks to Democrat-passed criminal justice “reforms.” Meanwhile, left-wing judges are resentencing and releasing in record numbers. We’re less safe because of Democrats and voters know this.

Smiley has the momentum. If she can turn out the votes, Washington will have its first Republican senator since Slade Gordon lost re-election in 2000.

WATCH: KTTH March to the Midterms with Tiffany Smiley, and more

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