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4 dangerous assumptions that could hurt your retirement

Apr 15, 2025, 9:27 AM

FILE - This Oct. 24, 2016 file photo shows dollar bills in New York. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File)...

FILE - This Oct. 24, 2016 file photo shows dollar bills in New York. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File)
Credit: ASSOCIATED PRESS

(AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File)

Here are four dangerous assumptions that could hurt your retirement.

Assumption #1: Stock and bond market returns will be robust

If you鈥檙e estimating what your portfolio will return over your holding period, think twice before plugging in strong returns.

Stocks鈥 long-term gains have been But there have been stretches in market history when returns have been lower; in the 2000s, for example, the S&P 500 actually lost money on an annualized basis.

That was because stocks were pricey at the decade鈥檚 outset. Though stock prices aren鈥檛 in Armageddon territory now, they鈥檙e also not cheap.

What to do instead: Lower your market-return projections and your planned withdrawal rate. Prudent investors should ratchet down their market-return projections somewhat, just to be safe.

that 3.7% is a on a balanced portfolio over 30 years. But there are also ways to lift that number, including employing some .

Assumption #2: Inflation will be benign

The past few years illustrate the peril of assuming that consumer prices will remain in a steady state. When inflation rears its head, retirees need to from their portfolios just to maintain their standards of living.

What to do instead: Consider inflation hedges in your retirement portfolio. Use longer-term inflation numbers to help guide planning decisions: 3% is a reasonable starting point. And to the extent that you can, customize your inflation forecast based on your actual consumption baskets. For example, allotting more for healthcare costs and less for spending on housing.

The possibility that inflation could run higher during your retirement also argues for laying in in your retirement portfolio. And it argues against holding too much in whose return potential is negative once inflation is factored in.

Assumption #3: You will work past age 65

The financial merits of working longer are irrefutable: continued portfolio contributions, delayed withdrawals, and . So, it comes as no surprise that older adults are .

Yet many workers ultimately leave the workforce earlier than planned, according to . This is partially owed to enlarged portfolio balances, but health considerations, unemployment, or untenable physical demands of the job can also play a role.

What to do instead: Be ready to fall back on other measures. While can deliver a three-fer for your retirement plan, it鈥檚 a mistake to assume that you鈥檒l be able to do so. If you鈥檝e run the numbers and it looks like you鈥檒l fall short, you can plan to work longer while also pursuing other measures, such as making lifestyle changes and increasing your savings rate. At a minimum, allow for the possibility that your income may not be as high as it was in your peak earnings years.

Assumption #4: You will receive an inheritance

There can be a disconnect between and their eventual windfalls. Increasing longevity, combined with , means that even parents who intend for their children to inherit assets from them may not be able to.

Adult children who expect an inheritance that doesn鈥檛 materialize may be inclined to overspend and under save during their peak earning years. And by the time their parents pass away and don鈥檛 leave them the windfall they expected, it could be too late to make up for the shortfall.

What to do instead: Communicate about inheritances early. If you鈥檙e incorporating an expected inheritance into your retirement plan, it鈥檚 wise to as soon as possible.

____

This article was provided to The Associated Press by Morningstar. For more personal finance content, go to鈥

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4 dangerous assumptions that could hurt your retirement