Election 2017: Expected low turnout favors conservatives
Oct 31, 2017, 5:41 AM | Updated: 7:14 am
A ballot drop box in Washington state. (AP file photo)
(AP file photo)
With no national candidates or compelling state initiatives, voter turnout in Washington state is expected to push into historic lows for the November 2017 election.
Election officials in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties expect fewer than 45 percent of registered voters will return their ballots by next Tuesday. The state elections office, fearful that forecasting a low-voter turnout will repress numbers even more, declined to predict statewide outcomes.
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But the lack of a compelling national candidate or state issue is only partly to blame, said Benjamin Gonzalez, a Highline College professor of political science. Current political toxicity likely also is playing a role.
鈥淲hen the rhetoric gets really charged, it can help depress turnout,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e do know that in Washington and King County, we鈥檝e seen some falling turnout rates. In the 2015 elections, we hit a pretty low point of 38 percent voter participation.鈥�
And generally, low-turnout elections tend to favor conservatives, he said.
鈥淭he individuals who tend to turn out in off-year or midterm elections tend to be older, fewer minorities, wealthier individuals tend to turn out at a higher rate,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat demographic group tends to favor conservative or Republican candidates.鈥�
Gonzalez said some races might help pull in 50 percent of registered voters within specific communities. The Seattle mayor鈥檚 race between and 聽has garnered both money and interest within city limits. Same for the between Judy Tuohy and Cassie Franklin and Jim Merritt and Victoria Woodards.
And in the Eastside鈥檚 (Kirkland, Woodinville, Duvall) where state political party power could be decided, turnout could be better-than-average for an off year, he said.
鈥淏ut these mid-term elections, they are tough,鈥� he said. And the Democrats, he said, have it even tougher. For the 45迟丑听(District) for example, the low-turnout bias should help , over Democrat .
鈥淭hat鈥檚 going to be an issue for the Democrats for the type of coalition they tend to rely on,鈥� he said. 鈥淵ounger voters, minorities. Those two groups are harder to turn out.鈥�
