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So, you hate the gas tax. Maybe you’d rather pay a fee for the miles you drive. A new state analysis makes the case for a road-use tax in Washington.

State lawmakers are considering a double-digit gas tax increase to fund a comprehensive, multi-billion dollar transportation plan. Gov. Jay Inslee recently pushed for passage of a transportation funding bill during a special session as part of a package of incentives designed to satisfy the Boeing company. What you might not know is the gas tax could be on its way out as the primary way to pay for transportation.

“We won’t be able to maintain our roads and build new ones unless we replace the gas tax, or raise the gas tax significantly,” said state Transportation Commission member Charley Royer.

Gas tax revenue is diminishing every year and long-term forecasts predict a decline in gasoline consumption and gas tax revenue. Royer and other commissioners believe that the gas tax is not sustainable as a consistent source of revenue for state transportation projects. The major reason is that cars are more fuel efficient and some vehicles don’t burn gas at all.

So Washington is studying the feasibility of a road usage fee, what was once called a tax on vehicle miles traveled [VMT]. Oregon is ahead of all states, having just finished the second of two pilot programs for its Road Usage Charge Program.

“We learned from the pilot that the system can and does work, which was great news,” said Michelle Godfrey with the Oregon Department of Transportation.

In 2015, Oregon will start charging 5,000 volunteer drivers a 1.5 cent per mile fee instead of the state’s gas tax of 31 cents per gallon. Godfrey said the point of the road usage fee is to maintain a reliable funding source and make it fair, considering that some people drive gas-powered cars and some don’t.

“Those who are not paying any gas tax because, for instance, they have an electric vehicle, they would be contributing their fair share and it could amount to dollars per year to $100 per year to maybe upwards of $300 per year,” said Godfrey.

Charging for miles driven is a new way of doing things and Royer acknowledged it could be difficult to overcome a public mistrust of government. He suggested the state could get past that by offering drivers payment options, other than technology that they might consider intrusive.

“If you don’t want a GPS in your car, you don’t have to have it, if you don’t want a thing that measures the number of miles you drive, total, you don’t have to have that,” offered Royer.

“This doesn’t have to be complicated,” said Jack Opiola, who has consulted on various studies of road usage taxes. “It can be as simple as getting the odometer reading presented by the individual on a yearly basis when they re-register their vehicle.”

The state Legislature asked Royer and a to make a business case for replacing the gas tax with a road use tax. Using a variety of payment models, the panel compared expected net revenues from a road-use tax versus a gasoline tax for a 25-year period starting in 2015. The road use fee outperformed the gas tax every time.

“We have told the Legislature that based on those simple criteria, can we raise enough money to replace the gas tax in that period of time? The answer is yes, but there are lots of unknowns,” said Royer.

Among the questions that remain: Is a road use fee truly sustainable? Neither the gas tax nor a miles traveled fee is indexed to inflation. How would the state set rates? Do you scrap the existing tolling system? Is it equitable for rural drivers who deal with longer travel distances. How would the state transition from a gas tax?

Any changeover to a road use fee is likely several years down the road. The Legislature would have to approve and the public has not yet had a say. A report to the Legislature is due next month. But plenty of people are convinced that a tax on miles traveled, not gas burned, is the future of transportation funding, in Washington and possibly, nationwide.