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Seattle finally has an independent review of its troubled streetcar project. Questions still remain about the costly streetcar effort, including if Mayor Jenny Durkan will end it or pay to keep it going.

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The project aims to connect the separate streetcar lines in South Lake Union and Capitol Hill. The mayor halted construction, however, in March as the price tag continued to balloon. What started as a $143.2 million project in 2015 grew to $166.5 million in 2016. By 2018, officials discovered it grew again to nearly $200 million.

The says it will now cost the city over $252 million to complete.

The city has already spent $31 million on the project. Dropping it completely would likely cost Seattle at least $55 million while opening it to potential lawsuits.

The main contributors to the capital cost overruns are material and labor escalations, and additional administrative and management staff. Other cost increases included: $19 million for additional design, vehicles, start-up, administrative and construction costs.

That’s just the financial conclusions from contractor KPMG, which was hired to assess the Seattle streetcar system and plans. The city awaits answers to more questions. Another study on whether the new streetcars will actually fit the existing tracks has not been completed. Also, what manner of litigation will the city face if it abandons its streetcar project altogether. The mayor’s office states it is waiting until all assessments are done before making any decision on the streetcar project.

Seattle Streetcar Cost Overview

The assessment from KPMG also indicates that ridership on the South Lake Union line has steadily declined over the years. In 2013, it served 760,933 passenger trips. By 2017, that number was 572,819. The First Hill line, however, grew in its first year, from 840,049 to 984,947 passenger trips.

The report notes that ridership statistics have been lower than estimated, while other forms of transit around the streetcar have shown increases, such as the buses. Construction also likely hurt streetcar ridership.

Seattle has four options moving forward, according to the auditor, which are combinations of keeping or nixing the new streetcar construction, and maintaining or decreasing existing streetcar service.

Options include: Continue with construction and current operations; continue with construction and decrease streetcar operations to meet the declined demand; shut the project down but continue with current operations; shut the project down and decrease existing service with shorter hours.

If Seattle continues with all plans, KMPG estimates that the city could provide between 5.17-6.08 million trips per year by 2022, costing between $15.63-$16.99 million to operate. That number goes up to between 5.83-6.86 million by 2026, costing between $16.63-19.57 million.

If the city terminates construction and continues operating as is, Seattle will likely provide between 1.34-1.58 trips in 2022 costing between $9.94-10.29 million; and 1.51-1.78 trips in 2026 at $9.10-10.71 million.