Washington’s Clallam County stands as best resource to predict presidential election
Nov 5, 2024, 8:24 AM | Updated: 10:36 am
Marlyn Nelson County Park at Port Williams in Clallam County. (Photo courtesy of Clallam County)
(Photo courtesy of Clallam County)
Political pundits, experts, outlets, anchors and podcasts be damned. If anyone wants the most accurate prediction for who will be the next U.S. president following the Nov. 5 election, look no further than Clallam County.
For the past 44 years, Clallam County voters have proved more accurate than national polls when it comes to picking a president. From Ronald Reagan in 1980 to Joe Biden in 2020, 11 presidential races in a row, the candidate who won Clallam County was also the same candidate who took home the presidency.
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The county is now the last remaining bellwether county in America. Election聽bellwether counties in the U.S. are counties聽that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in聽U.S. presidential elections.
“The one thing that stands out to me is that they all seem to be tuned in to the ups and downs of the economy, which tends to be the driving force in most political transitions during the last 40 years,” Daniel Stengela, a political science professor at Peninsula College in Clallam County, told .
Of the 3,144 counties sprinkled across the U.S., only 19 accurately predicted the right presidential victor 10 times in a row from 1980 to 2016. However, in 2020, 18 of those counties stuck with Trump, who lost the election. Clallam County — which is home to approximately 77,805 people across its 100 miles of scenic Washington vistas — was the one county of the 19 to flip from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020.
“It鈥檚 not that crazy a place,” Stengel added. “No one has an Ouija board or anything.”
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According to county data, the primary election held in Clallam County earlier this year in March revealed a once-close race. While the county did favor Biden, according to , there was only a difference of 284 votes between Biden and Trump.
Contributing:
Frank Sumrall is a content editor at MyNorthwest. You can read his stories聽here聽and you can email him聽here.
