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It would take an extraordinary event for Republicans to overturn the Democratic majorities in both chambers of the Washington State Legislature. However, Democrats have a real chance to secure a supermajority in either the House or the Senate, which would grant them greater power to enact constitutional changes.

So, what are the chances of this happening?

Democrats currently hold majorities in both chambers, with 29 out of 48 seats in the Senate and 58 out of 98 seats in the House. The party needs just four more seats in the Senate and eight in the House to reach a supermajority.

Let’s break down some of the key state Senate races that are considered toss-ups or are leaning Republican or Democrat, and where significant campaign money is being spent.

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There are four districts where election forecaster CNalysis rates the races as either toss-ups or leaning slightly toward one side. One of these toss-up races is for the 17th District seat, which is being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Lynda Wilson (R-Vancouver). Democrat Marla Keethler, the Mayor of White Salmon, hopes to flip the seat and defeat Representative Paul Harris (R-Vancouver).

Keethler may get a boost from redistricting, which occurred after a 2020 court decision found voter discrimination in the boundary lines. Many of the redrawn districts now include more Democrat-friendly neighborhoods, giving Democrats hope of gaining seats.

Harris, who has represented the district in the House since 2011, is more familiar to voters and leads in fundraising. Harris has raised $477,694.63, spending $232,231.73 so far, while Keethler has raised $324,692.69 and spent $219,183.45.

Another race deemed a toss-up by CNalysis is in the 10th Legislative District. Incumbent Republican Ron Muzzall (R-Oak Harbor) is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Janet St. Clair, Island County Commissioner.

The total contributions raised in this race have reached a staggering $1.3 million, an unusually high figure for a legislative seat. This equates to roughly $8.12 per person in the district. Muzzall and his Republican supporters have raised $880,658.92, spending nearly all of it with expenditures of $819,445.07. Muzzall was appointed to the seat in October 2019 by the Board of County Commissioners to replace Barbara Bailey (R).

Muzzall beat St. Clair in the primary, winning 48.2% to 45%, a difference of just 776 votes. However, Democrats are optimistic about the general election because a third Democratic candidate, Danny Sandberg, took 6.7% of the primary vote, amounting to 1,605 votes. If those votes shift to St. Clair, Democrats could flip one of the four Senate seats needed for a supermajority.

Democrats are also targeting Senator Curtis King (R-Yakima) in the redrawn 14th Legislative District in eastern Washington. King, first elected in 2007, is known for his bipartisan support on some issues. His challenger is Democrat Maria Beltran, the first in her farmworker family to graduate from college. Beltran has never held public office.

The district was redrawn after a successful 2020 legal challenge that claimed the previous boundaries discriminated against Latino voters. CNalysis rates this race as tilting Democrat, and the fundraising reflects the closeness of the contest. King’s campaign has raised $543,637.67 and spent $356,423.82, while Beltran’s campaign has raised $483,746.36 and spent $361,634.88.

Another closely watched Senate race is in the 18th Legislative District, where Democrat Adrian Cortes, a Battle Ground City Council member, is aiming to flip the seat vacated by Ann Rivers (R-Vancouver).

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Redistricting made it so Rivers would have had to move to run for the seat again, leading her to step aside. In the primary, Republican Brad Benton came in second to Cortes but split the Republican vote with Representative Greg Cheney (R-Battle Ground). Although the district hasn’t elected a Democratic state senator since the 1990s, the newly redrawn boundaries now include more suburban voters and fewer rural ones, which Democrats believe could work in their favor.

The fundraising effort underscores Democrats’ push to flip the seat. Cortes’s campaign has raised $359,112.59 and spent $320,284.15, compared to Benton’s $144,504.07 raised and $64,117.42 spent. Despite this, CNalysis still lists the race as leaning Republican.

We will post an analysis next week of the key House races where Democrats have a chance to flip seats in their quest for a supermajority.

Matt Markovich often covers the state legislature and public policy for 成人X站 Newsradio. You can read more of Matt鈥檚 stories聽here. Follow him on聽, or聽email him here.