NATIONAL NEWS

Ranchers say expanding herds to take advantage of record retail beef prices isn’t so simple

Jul 30, 2025, 8:46 PM

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — In a period when retail beef prices are at an all-time high and consumers are still willing to pay, South Dakota rancher Calli Williams would love to cash in. But it’s not so simple.

Williams and her husband, Tate, raise about 70 cow-calf pairs near Letcher in southeastern South Dakota, roughly 18 miles (29 kilometers) north of Mitchell. They own about 80 acres (32 hectares) and rent additional pasture.

Between the drought that hit cattle country hard over the last few years, still being maxed out on the grass available to feed their animals, and with land prices rising, she said, they simply can’t yet make the financial investments that they’d need to raise production.

“It is a goal of ours to expand,” she said. “I’m just not sure if that will be in the 10-year plan or even longer.”

Biology is a barrier to expansion

Farmers and ranchers across the U.S. would love to take greater advantage of the high prices, but with the U.S. herd at record lows, they can’t meet the demand quickly. It’s basic biology.

“It takes three years to get more cows — between making a decision, having that gestation period, having the calf born, raising the calf until it, too, can have a calf,” said Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist for the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute in Minneapolis.

Drought has eased but the impacts persist

The Williamses’ county was hard hit by drought over the previous few seasons. Because of the lack of their grass and uneconomically high hay prices, they had to sell all their young females last year that could have produced more calves for them this year, she said.

Their area has caught some rain lately, though. It has improved to just “abnormally dry” in recent reports. But Williams said they’re simply playing catch-up.

Swanson said some of the main cattle areas in North America — from Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada down to Texas in the U.S. — are just naturally prone to drought. It’s often boom or bust.

Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, said a lot of cattle country has had good rain this summer, but it’s a cyclical business.

“Sometimes we have good times, and sometimes we don’t,” Woodall said. “And we are just coming off what was a pretty significant negative hit to the cattle industry in ’19, ’20 and ’21, with the height of the pandemic. So we have a lot of producers who are still trying to pay off bills from those times.”

Fear of future drought is also a factor

And Woodall said his members are still leery. They’re asking how long the better weather will last.

“We’re getting some good moisture now. But will it be that way in the fall? Will it be that way next year?” he said. “Because the last thing you want to do is pay to rebuild your herd and then just have to liquidate them again in six months to a year.”

Although it’s difficult to attribute any single weather event, such as a drought, directly to climate change, scientists say that rising temperatures stoked by climate change are increasing the odds of both severe droughts and heavier precipitation, which wreak havoc on people and the environment.

When extreme weather collides with tight margins, farmers and ranchers feel the squeeze.

The economics: Prices have soared to record highs

Retail beef prices have hit record highs with no relief for consumers in sight. Ground beef rose to an average of $6.12 per pound in June, up nearly 12% from 2024. The average price of all steaks rose 8% to $11.49 per pound.

And the average prices that producers receive for cattle and calves have increased from $1.51 per pound in May 2020 to $4.05 in May of this year.

But herds have still shrunk

The total U.S. cattle herd is the since the government began keeping those figures in 1973, and probably since the 1950s. There were few signs in the U.S. Department of Agriculture that producers have begun rebuilding herds.

As of July 1, the U.S. had 94.2 million cattle and calves, down from the last midyear peak in 2019 of nearly 103 million. Critical for the future supply, 2025 calf production is projected at 33.1 million head, down 1% from last year.

Derrell Peel, a livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, said if producers were planning to grow their herds, the USDA reports would have shown them keeping heifers — female cows that haven’t given birth yet.

Yet consumer demand remains high

While retail prices are high, consumers so far have been willing to pay them.

Glynn Tonsor, who leads the at Kansas State University, said taste is the most important consideration when shoppers choose proteins — and beef remains the favorite.

The found that consumers were willing to fork out $17.62 a pound for rib-eye steaks and $8.82 for a pound of ground beef. That’s more than the $7.13 they’d pay for pork chops, $6.19 for bacon, or $8.55 for chicken breasts.

A major reason, Woodall offered, is that the beef industry has focused on the eating experience.

“The kind of beef that we are producing today is some of the highest quality, best tasting beef that we’ve ever produced in history here in the United States,” he said. “So, things such as USDA prime graded steaks that at one point in time you could only get in a restaurant, you can now get that in a grocery store.”

For consumers who balk at costs, the marketing specialist Peel said, pork and poultry are “abundant and quite favorably priced.”

Meanwhile, back at the ranch

The Williamses, who are both 34, built their TW Angus business from scratch. Tate Williams started buying cattle when he was in high school, and they bought their land in 2015. They sell bulls in the spring and keep heifers when they can. They also raise steers in their own feedlot and sell the meat directly to consumers.

“We would really like to expand our operation,” Calli Williams said. “We have a goal of being able to pass this on to the next generation,” Williams said, meaning their sons Jack, 7, and Tommy, nearly 4.

But recalling a friend’s words, she said ranchers are a resilient bunch.

“We’re optimistic that if Mother Nature — she wreaked havoc on us, whether that was a drought or a flood — that next year she’ll be kinder to us, “ she said. ”Or, if the markets weren’t on our side, we’re optimistic that the markets will be on our side next time.”

National News

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem sits on a horse as she speaks to the press upon arriva...

Associated Press

Judge extends TPS expiration dates for 60,000 people from Central America and Nepal

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A federal judge in California extended on Thursday protected status for 60,000 people from Central America and Asia that was ended by the Trump administration. The order affects about 7,000 people from Nepal along with 51,000 Hondurans and 3,000 Nicaraguans. The order came as the people from Nepal’s protection was set […]

22 minutes ago

Associated Press

Texas man indicted for fatally shooting Afghan refugee who had helped US troops defuse bombs

HOUSTON (AP) — The brother of an Afghan refugee who helped U.S. forces defuse bombs during the war in Afghanistan expressed frustration Thursday that it took more than three months for the Texas man accused of fatally shooting his sibling over a parking dispute to be indicted in the case. When Abdul Rahman Waziri, 31, […]

2 hours ago

This image from police body camera footage provided by the Mesa County Sheriff's Office shows sheri...

Associated Press

Colorado deputies disciplined for helping federal immigration agents

DENVER (AP) — Two Colorado deputies have been disciplined for violating state law by helping federal agents make immigration arrests, and their sheriff says officers from other agencies have done the same. One of the deputies, Alexander Zwinck, was sued by Colorado’s attorney general last week, after his cooperation with federal immigration agents on a […]

2 hours ago

In this photo provided by Lin Chao, 'fire clouds' form near the Bright Angel Trailhead at the South...

Associated Press

‘Fire clouds’ over Arizona and Utah wildfires are creating their own erratic climate

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Two wildfires burning in the western United States — including one that has become a “megafire” on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon — are so hot that they’re spurring the formation of “fire clouds” that can create their own erratic weather systems. In Arizona, the wind-whipped wildfire that […]

2 hours ago

FILE - U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra speaks at the Linen Building in Boise, Idaho, June 26, ...

Associated Press

2026 race for California governor goes into new gear and directions with Kamala Harris out

LOS ANGELES (AP) — After months of uncertainty, the race to become California’s next governor started Thursday. Former Vice President Kamala Harris’ decision Wednesday to bypass the 2026 contest pushed the campaign into a new phase, lacking its biggest potential star and the presumptive early favorite. Harris’ formal exit opens the door for additional candidates […]

3 hours ago

FILE - A crucifix is silhouetted against a stained glass window inside a Catholic Church in New Orl...

Associated Press

Survivor of clergy sex abuse in Peru visits pope’s hometown to call for more reforms

CHICAGO (AP) — A Peruvian survivor of clergy sex abuse brought her public campaign for reforms to the American hometown of Pope Leo XIV on Thursday, saying he failed in investigating her case when he was a bishop in her home country and needs to step up now as leader of the world’s Catholics. “I’ve […]

3 hours ago

Ranchers say expanding herds to take advantage of record retail beef prices isn’t so simple