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HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) 鈥� When U.S. President Donald Trump met five African leaders in Washington in July, his lack of familiarity with the continent was on display. He praised Liberian President Joseph Boakai鈥檚 English 鈥� Liberia鈥檚 official language 鈥� and gestured at another leader to wrap up remarks. But the bigger takeaway was Trump鈥檚 pledge to transform U.S.-Africa relations: a shift from aid to trade, even as the region reels from steep tariffs and sweeping aid cuts.

African leaders offered minerals from manganese to uranium and possibly lithium. Senegal鈥檚 president even sought to leverage Trump鈥檚 love of golf by inviting him to build a course. Yet many nations are anxious about Washington鈥檚 new path.

After slashing billions in foreign aid, including shutting down the U.S. Agency for International Development 鈥� which provided over $12 billion in humanitarian assistance in 2025 alone 鈥� the Trump administration says it is forging a new approach: 鈥渃ommercial diplomacy.鈥� Trade, not aid, is the order of the day.

鈥淚t is now truly our policy for Africa,鈥� said Troy Fitrell, the top U.S. diplomat for Africa, when announcing the strategy in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, in May. Ambassadors will now be judged not by aid projects but on 鈥渉ow well they support鈥� local businesses and 鈥渉ow effectively they advocate for U.S. business and the number of deals they facilitate,鈥� he said.

Africa accounts for less than 1% of U.S. goods trade, but Fitrell called it 鈥渢he world鈥檚 largest untapped market,鈥� projecting its purchasing power could surpass $16 trillion by 2050.

Early deals, lingering doubts

Washington touts quick progress: 33 agreements worth $6 billion in Trump鈥檚 first 100 days, plus $2.5 billion in commitments at a U.S.-Africa business summit in June. Projects span grain storage and digital infrastructure in Angola, energy ventures in Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Congo, and tourism in Ethiopia.

Still, many worry about the costs. Job losses and economic pain from tariffs are mounting even as Washington celebrates these wins.

Trump did not invent the idea of trade over aid. African leaders have pushed for this since the 1970s. The problem, critics say, is the caveat: steep tariffs and uncertainty over the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the U.S. flagship program for trade with the continent.

鈥淚n reality, these tariffs are not about trade balances. It鈥檚 economic warfare,鈥� said the Alternative Information and Development Centre, a South African NGO.

Fears that jobs could go

Trump has imposed a 30% tariff on selected South African goods and threatens another 10% for nations aligned with the BRICS bloc of developing economies. South Africa鈥檚 Automotive Business Council says vehicle exports to the U.S. have plunged over 80%, warning that tariffs 鈥渟trike at the heart of South Africa鈥檚 industrialization agenda.鈥� More than 100,000 jobs, mostly in auto and agriculture, are at risk, the council says.

Smaller nations are also reeling. Lesotho declared a state of disaster after being hit with 50% duties 鈥� the second-highest rate after China 鈥� before Trump announced a 90-day pause. About 12,000 textile jobs hang in the balance, according to Lesotho’s Minister of Trade, Industry, and Business Development, Mokhethi Shelile. From vanilla farmers in Madagascar to cocoa growers in Ivory Coast and oil exporters in Nigeria, tariffs have shaken economies and raised doubts about Washington鈥檚 intent.

鈥淭he U.S. certainly can鈥檛 have it both ways,鈥� said Bester Brendon Verster, an economist at Oxford Economics Africa. 鈥淭he 鈥榓id to trade鈥� stance risks leaving Africa behind once the U.S. has gotten what it wanted, which will probably be critical minerals.”

An agreement on the brink

AGOA, enacted in 2000 and renewed in 2015, allows duty-free U.S. access for nearly 2,000 goods from 32 African nations. It expires in September, with no clear sign that it will be renewed.

South Africa鈥檚 trade minister warned it will be 鈥渧ery difficult鈥� to keep AGOA under current conditions. Fitrell said he is a 鈥渂ig fan鈥� of the deal but told African leaders they must do more to lobby Congress. Future arrangements may require 鈥渕uch greater attention toward some form of reciprocity鈥� to reflect Trump鈥檚 push for U.S. economic interests, he said.

Meanwhile, China is leveraging zero-tariff policies to expand its influence. In June, China 鈥� already Africa鈥檚 biggest trading partner 鈥� said it plans to grant duty-free market access to 53 African nations. Still, Verster said some African nations might be cautious about strengthening ties with China, for fear of triggering retaliation from the U.S.

鈥淎ligning with China 鈥� could possibly bring about more economic punishment from the U.S.,” he said.