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At least 421 deaths, and nearly 9100 cases. Those are the latest coronavirus numbers in Washington state, according to the state Department of Health. Those numbers continue upward each day at the state and many county levels, but the rate they鈥檙e rising is trending slower, and is evidence we are flattening the curve with mitigation efforts.

Mayor Durkan: 鈥榃e are not out of the woods鈥�

It鈥檚 an indication that we will soon enter the next phase of the pandemic, .

But as we keep hearing from Washington officials, we are not out of the woods yet.

鈥淯nfortunately it鈥檚 really difficult to know if we are at peak activity,鈥� said state health officer Kathy Lofy during a Monday press briefing. 鈥淲e generally do not know that we have peaked in the state until we see about a 2 to 3 week decline in all of our data indicators, and we have not seen that yet.”

She says it鈥檚 also tough to predict future virus activity.

鈥淚t’s largely dependent on how well we continue to maintain social distancing practices,鈥� Lofy explained. 鈥淢ost of the population is still susceptible to COVID-19 or is not immune yet, so if we let up on social distancing practices, we will likely see an increase in activity.”

There are also still significant testing issues.

鈥淲e are in a very, very unsatisfactory position,鈥� Governor Inslee said Monday.

鈥淭his has been one of my greatest frustrations where the federal government has not acted with as much intensity of leadership that we need. We have hundreds of people that we would like to test today, including some at our long term care facilities that have had people infected in their facility that cannot get tested and the reason is that there鈥檚 not enough test kits — a swab, a vile with transport medium in it. Those kits are simply not available to us,鈥� Inslee added, calling the lack of supplies massively frustrating.

Several Republican and Democratic members of Washington鈥檚 congressional delegation pressing the Trump Administration to get Washington the supplies, warning that not having them undermined Washington鈥檚 ability to identify cases and has 鈥渟erious repercussions for public health.鈥�

In the meantime, Inlsee is shopping.

鈥淎s governor, I鈥檓 actually trying to procure them everywhere in the world right now. We are doing everything humanly possible but there鈥檚 a world shortage of these,鈥� Inslee said.

And the governor says the kits aren鈥檛 the only issue.

鈥淲e also have to dramatically increase the ability to analyze these samples 鈥� meaning the analytic capacity of the whole system has to increase several fold, and … I don鈥檛 believe the federal government has come to terms with how much we have to increase testing capability,鈥� Inslee said.

鈥淲e’re going to have to increase it dramatically as we come through this epidemic to allow people to safely return to work. I can鈥檛 overstate the need for increased capacity 鈥� the need for federal help on this, 鈥� he added.

Otherwise, more tough decisions will have to be made.

鈥淲e鈥檝e had to make triage decisions where if you have two places that need the kit, you鈥檝e got to make hard decisions about the way to save the most life, and we鈥檙e making those decisions every day and they’re very, very difficult,鈥� Inlsee explained, noting the state was doing everything it could but needs a lot more help.

Later Monday, Lofy said there was some progress made when the state was able to secure an order on its own for several thousand kits, but more are needed.

All of the needed supplies and analysis play a big role in getting to that so-called “Phase 2” 鈥� code for when at least some of these restrictions can start to be lifted.

UW Medicine testing app designed to predict next major outbreak

鈥淲e need to have the rapid ability to test folks who might develop symptoms because once we get down to very few cases, to assure that we don鈥檛 spring back, it鈥檚 going to be critical that we quickly identify folks infected with COVID, and get them isolated and then be able to contact their close contacts and get them quarantined,鈥� said State Secretary of Health John Wiesman.

It will take more than that to start lifting the lock down, including making sure there is also plenty of capacity in case a second wave hits, as well all the medical protective gear 鈥� or PPE 鈥� and places people can go to isolate or quarantine if they don鈥檛 have a home or can鈥檛 stay at their own.

Once that鈥檚 all settled, they can start to consider next steps.

鈥淲e鈥檒l need to be thinking about how we carefully reverse engineer lifting some of these community mitigation pieces that we have in place,鈥� Wiesman said.

But to even consider that they will have to really good data.

鈥淭o be able to quickly identify any outbreaks in a particular area, so that if we need to 鈥� immediately in a smaller area 鈥� re-implement some of these measures,鈥� Wiesman explained.

The governor鈥檚 current stay-at-home order lasts through at least May 4. A later order closed schools for in-person education for the rest of the school year, making it clear that districts should fine tune their distance learning models in case the closure needed to be further extended into the fall.

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